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April 17, 2009

Going From NYC Today Into the 21st Century

By Red Sox Steve

This week especially, I'm inspired by what I see when I walk around my neighborhood and on TV, what I've experienced living here for the past half-decade (has it been that long?), and what I think of where I live: New York City.

First things first - when I came here, I was a kid. Like everyone who shows up here from wherever they come from, I thought that I was going to make a big splash. Intrepid, well-dressed, professional. It was easy - be ambitious and confident all the time and you can make it here. Uh, actually, it's not that easy - New York City is a huge place, and guess what? Everyone who lives here and everyone who wants to live here, who plans on living here, or who even dreams of living here is in on the secret: this is one special place, a place where lots of hungry people congregate to build their own fortunes, start their careers, and build their lives. It's a place where dreams can be made, and it is a place where dreams come to die.

Don't want to dwell on the philosophical. That's not what this is about. This is about this place. I'm especially inspired this week, of all the weeks I've been here, because of what happened in Flushing and in the Bronx. In the middle of the worst economic crisis since at least WWII, businessmen, politicians and blue-collar workers have come together to create two world-class sports stadiums, with a new football stadium coming our way out in the Meadowlands. Both Citi Field (Mets) and Yankee Stadium hosted their first of many MLB games this week.

Hundreds of thousands of people have been positively impacted by these events - and I'm not just talking about the fans. Iron workers, construction foreman, laborers, architects, landscapers, and stadium workers all have had steady work for the last three years because of the efforts taken to continue with construction of these amazing ball parks. The construction began on Citi Field and (the New) Yankee Stadium in 2006. This means that the start of the project took place in a much different economic and political climate than we have today, which proves how fast fortunes (especially those that are wrongly distributed!) can change. In 2006, cash was easy to come by - Wall Streeters and billionaires (like the Wilpons who own the Mets and the Steinbrenners who own the Yankees) were raking it in, the tax collector was their friend en absentia, property values were skyrocketing, and the New York city economy was booming, just like it had many times before. The municipality was even ready to engage New York's resources further by bidding on the 2012 Olympics, which would have required the spending of over $1 billion to construct an appropriate stadium in Flushing, Queens.

Fast forward to Opening Week 2009. We have a new president, and a multi-layered economic crisis that we have to deal with. Credit was historically easy to get back in 2006. Liquidity was available for any type of mortgage imaginable, and now we are facing the worst housing crisis in over 50 years. Banks grew ever larger by lending money, and insurance companies suddenly turned into hedge funds. Billionaires threw lavish soirees where the champagne flowed and the hangers on congregated; A staple of corporate life, the office holiday party, grew more and more extravagant; nothing was too costly when the bosses showed their appreciation, and, perhaps ultimately the most destructive factor of all, bonuses were bigger than ever. Those one time payouts to employees, aptly named for a time when they weren't relied on for ACTUAL income, became a "wink-wink" part of the white-collar workplace. "Yours is big, mine is big, but are we actually worth that much more to the company? No matter! Let's call our real estate agents!"

Large financial companies have been reduced to nothing but "toxic assets". One ideology has been replaced by another via the voting booth, and all of a sudden the world now sees again, whether any one individual agrees with him or not, what it's like to have a president who listens. The thing about the overall crisis is this: From the economy of the 1990s where fortunes were made and lost, we got the internet, cell phones, and technology for all to consume and make use of. Nations respected us; those that pumped oil truly feared us (look at the price back then); those that shared our goals wanted to work with us. 2000. America lurched back to the right - the technology bubble burst, and gave way to a finance bubble, a credit bubble, a housing bubble, an energy bubble. The danger signs were everywhere that this was a return to feudalism for America - home ownership suddenly became our top economic goal, oil crossed $120, $130, $140, spending in Iraq was up, government tax receipts were down... it was a disaster waiting to happen. 2008. Our governmental ideology changed again - back to a center-left - and now we are again in the midst of reorganizing our national priorities. Clean energy technologies, hybrid autos, military technology, national scientific research initiatives, and international collaboration with our economic counterparts all over the world has once again returned to the forefront of America's goals.

21st century american life has begun and when we hit mid-century the world will be a much different place because of the things happening today. The 2059 world we are heading for will be unrecognizable to someone living in 2009; just as 1959 was incomprehensible when considered in 1909. We are on the dawn of an Asian century - all over the Asian sub-continent, billions are hungry for new technologies, new opportunities, and new lifestyles. America, and most of the western world will watch in awe as both India and China rise and ultimately begin to lead the way. To an American born after 1950, but before 2000, this will be the reality that we will be forced to adapt to, and the old way, the "American" way, will continue to fade for us, like the British empire before it, the Spanish empire before it, the Roman empire before it, and the Egyptian and Persian empires before it. How will you react when you wake up in 2059?





February 13, 2009

How to Handle Portfolio Anxiety: Step 1 of 5

By Matthew

Remember those old advertisements?

You know the ones...with the sympathetic-sounding narrator saying things like;

'Awwww Schmucky...are you feeling blue? Thing got you down because your dog ran away, your cat went on your pillow, your bird mimics your mom telling you what a disappointment you've been, your ex-wife just hit the lotto and your current wife is on a 6 month vacation to Jamaica...

trying to 'sort things out'.

Awwww Schmucky, is THAT what has you down???'

And then, of course the speakover would explain what headache remedy, new car, TV show or cigarette was certain to cure those ills.

Well...Buhbie, if your Portfolio full of disintegrating Stocks has you down, if your woman (or man) gives you a look when you think you might get lucky - a look that says 'yagadabefuckinkiddinme!', if your dog has been hanging at your best friends house for a week and your cat just ate the Salmon your spouse left on the bottom shelf for your dinner...

Guru has something even BETTER than medicine, autos or tabbacky to help you cope.

An overview.

A strategy.

An approach.

That, if followed, will allow you to make modest coin in '09, stanch the bleeding and position yourself wisely for 2012, or whenever this puppy will walk upright again.

Are you game?

I thought so.

* Overview

Stocks have been halved.

Not good.

But, in reality, the levels they held for much of the Bush 2nd Term (apt phrase, if ever there was one and explains why the first chance for a Bush double was averted by voters...) were entirely illusory. That may not be a source of comfort for you, but the Penguin is going to quote our old friend, Al Swearengen, of 'Deadwood' fame (2nd Quote of the day for Al, he made The Magic Carpet as well!)...

'...Damage don't end the world, or despair...or fucking beatings. The world ends when you're Dead. Until then, stand it like a man (woman, man who stands like a woman, woman who...etc.) and...
...give some back'.

That's the first thing. You have to bring yourself frontally BACK into the mindset of looking forward, if you lost Money - it's gone. It happens. It wasn't all your fault that's true...but;

a.) That doesn't make a fuck of a difference to anyone, for any reason. Fault is meaningless in Finance. If your situation is not litigious, then you were investing on your OWN decision, at your OWN risk, which means the losses...

b.) Partly ARE your fault. See the note above for the reality of such information.

What matters is to understand *What went wrong? Where were the signs? What to do differently now.

Depends on the Stock in question.

a.) If you owned Retail, Auto, Insurance, Investment Banking, Airlines, Banks, Mortgage Lenders, Homebuilders...you were probably allowing your ego and emotions to manage things.

Each of these areas had already seen the best of it's days well before the crisis. IF you owned the shares for a period of time and had profits in them, those are the times when you MUST be disciplined to take money OFF the table and sell. If you had just bought into those sectors, at high prices for some and amidst dramatically declining fundamentals for all - you blew it.

Forgive yourself.

Move on.

b.) If you owned Energy, International Stocks, Blue Chips unaffected directly by the crisis...you made a serious analysis about the path ahead and things went awry.

Again, it happens.

Penguin owned Energy throughout the Bush years and had unwound most of his profits long ago...but I was a buyer in the early stages of Fall, believing the OPEC easing was simply it's Quadrennial push to keep the GOP in the WH and prices would soar, post Election.

Ooops.

Demand got SO squeezed by customers gauged beyond contain for YEARS, customers who had now lost their home value, stock value and/or J-O-B.

Nowhere to drive.

Nowhere to go.

No money for Gas, even cheap Gas and no money for anything anyway, so keep the lights on, the cable paid, cheap food (starches are good in these periods when other humans won't be seeing a lot of you)
a touch of red liquid, green plant and something to schmush (doesn't have to be human, decide how much food you can spare).

SO Energy lost speed and didn't come back, The worm has turned on Fossil Fuels at long last.

Like much of this mess, that overarching POSITIVE has been borne of this short-term negative.

c.) Similarly, the initial take - that America would bear this catastrophe largely alone, and International Stocks were preferable - was understandable. It was also wrong. American demand cratering impacts all. American Banks and Banking IDEAS, infected Global Financial Institutions. They didn't hurt like we got hurt, but they were no safe harbor in THIS storm. A friend worked at BNP Paribas, a French Bank who had limited exposure to the Mortgage Securities market and little debt, they were in the right position and, like JP Morgan and Wells Fargo in America, looked to be the clear 'winner' in Euro Banking.

Enter Bernie Madoff. Exit BNP shares and thousands of workers.

Sometimes, even when you do everything RIGHT, it goes wrong. You cannot linger on such events. All you CAN do is position yourself well based upon the Data, monitor your position with an eye to your risk and constantly enhance your knowledge.

*Which takes us to the Blue Chips...

They come in many types and sorting them out is relatively simple.

a.) Some are parts of industries that are past their viable point. If a company has more history BEHIND it than ahead - and that can be said of the Autos, almost ALL of the Financials and Insurers, Oil & Gas...

..than it is time to write those companies OFF - Don't go there!

If you buy a domestic Airline stock, I will send Scout and Chester to your crib, and the boys don't play, ya dig?.

b.) Others are in trouble, NOT because of their industry but because of some Company-specific reason. In that case, you need to look deeply into the circumstances that ail it and gauge your risks - Penguin will be happy to discuss individual securities with you - send an e-mail.

In General, you want to avoid risk that doesn't have much upside. If you own something that is a solid company in a temporary jam due to the economic winds and a crisis that is resolvable, then avoid watching it dance around the nether regions of its price chart and follow the details. They will give you clues as to when you should look to:

@ Add to your position at a lower price, Dollar/Cost Averaging your purchase price to a lower break-even level - which means, when the stock returns to the price you ORIGINALLY paid for it - you are in a profit position.

@ See the position move forward. If a solid business is dealing with a merger or court case, the stock will fluctuate wildly in the periods before resolution. When a decision is made, one way or other, that uncertainty leaves the picture. Financial impact can be valued and a path back to previous levels can be speculated upon - meaning the Stock is back in play as a 'Buy', such stocks move rapidly upward when the news goes from unknown to known.

c.) Lastly, there are the PREFERRED category...these are Solid companies, with solid balance sheets, 21st Century Businesses with more FUTURE than past. Preferably ones that generate oodles of cash, and, who are we to complain (!) if it pays a Dividend?

We'll tell you WHICH Stocks fit that Preferred Category, in Penguin's view..in Part 2 of this series...

On Sunday.












January 24, 2009

The Mexican Peso and its relationship to oil

Recently, because of the global economic crisis, we are seeing that developed countries (in addition to China) are taking the approach of issuing more debt and appending those funds to policies focusing on effective nationalization of the banking industry and additional efforts on infrastructure development and energy conservation.

There are a few players that are left out of this game and one of them is Mexico which is facing a severe - and sustained - devaluation of its currency.

A quick analysis of the numbers:

August 1, 2008, 1 US dollar (USD) bought you 9.94 Mexican Pesos (MXN)
October 1, 2008, 1 USD bought 10.95 MXN
November 4, 2008, 1 USD bought 12.52 MXN
January 20, 2009, 1 USD bought 14.02 MXN

Let's look at oil prices (light sweet crude) during that same period:

August 1, 2008, $125/barrel
October 1, 2008, $98/barrel
November 4, 2008, $70/barrel
January 20, 2009, $40/barrel

We can see a relationship forming - as the price of oil drops, the Mexican currency becomes worth less and less in relation to the dollar (you get more pesos per dollar, so the peso is worth LESS).
Mexico is the 6th largest oil producing country in the world and exports approximately half of its production; contrast that to the US which produces about 50% more oil than Mexico, but still has to IMPORT 6 times the oil that Mexico EXPORTS!)

It is undoubtedly better for consuming nations that the price of a barrel of oil decrease, however it can be harmful for oil producers/exporters when an unforeseen drop in the oil price occurs. This situation caused another problem in Mexico: large corporations such as Gruma (corn flour & tortillas), Cemex (cement) and Comercial Mexicana (retail) lost hundreds of millions of dollars... they bet the wrong way when they had to predict the future value of the mexican peso.

Prior to the summer of 2008, petrodollars were flowing into Mexico as oil prices rose. This caused an increase in the value of the peso - foreign purchasers had to buy pesos in order to purchase one of Mexico's most important exports: oil. As those purchases were taking place, currency markets reflected the fact that the peso was strong relative to the dollar (generally a worthless currency as oil prices rise - see for yourself on Yahoo Finance.

As the value of the peso rose, Mexican companies saw what appeared to be a clear trend - it seemed that the peso would continue to strengthen into the future, so it was wise to buy a currency futures contract: the owner of the contract is essentially able to lock in the price at which a peso is purchased at some point in the future. There is a catch, however. The catch is that if you own a futures contract you have to post "margin" - you have to give a currency exchange some of your own money in order to stay in the game... this money remains in your "margin account". In case you can't meet the terms of the contract, the exchange takes your margin and closes you out.

Essentially, Gruma, Cemex, etc. all were continuing to post margin. They bet big bucks that the peso would continue to strengthen against "reserve" currencies like the dollar and euro; when the peso weakened, their margin requirements went up (nearly every single day), and bingo! they lost hundreds of millions of dollars. Comercial Mexicana's losses ($1bn) were so bad that they had to file for bankruptcy.

You see, it's all connected - oil prices, energy export & consumption, exchange rates today, exchange rates in the future, political cycles (pretty easy to figure that putting a democrat in office in the US would drive oil production up and prices down - the Saudis want to stay in business too!), international relations.

As a people looking forward we need to figure out how to break that destructive relationship - markets will always be markets, they will always move in one direction or another, someone will always win and someone will always lose; but it's the correlation between currencies and oil prices that's causing devastation in developing nations like Mexico = the price of a barrel of oil changing over the course of just a few months caused severe damage to the Mexican economy just as it was starting to slow down the damage done in the US and Europe.