The Ice Flow

On North Korea...

'Maybe this is unusual because you are supposed to be so careful that we spend hours avoiding stating the obvious. I think it's worth, perhaps, being more straightforward, trying to engage other countries on the basis of the reality that exists'

'North Korea is not going to get a different relationship with the United States while insulting and refusing dialogue with the Republic of Korea'

Secretary of State - Hillary Clinton

On China...

'I see our job right now, given where we are in the World, and what we've inherited, as repairing relations, not only with Governments but with people'

'We know what they're going to say, because I've had those conversations for more than a decade with Chinese leaders'

“I think that to worry about something which is so self-evident is an impediment to clear thinking,”

On the job one HAS...be it First Lady of Arkansas, First Lady of the USA, Senator, Candidate, Secretary...

'Bloom where you're planted'

"Amnesty International is shocked and extremely disappointed by U.S. Secretary Clinton's comments that human rights will not be a priority in her diplomatic engagement with China.

"The United States is one of the only countries that can meaningfully stand up to China on human rights issues. But by commenting that human rights will not interfere with other priorities, Secretary Clinton damages future U.S. initiatives to protect those rights in China.

"The Chinese people face a dire situation. Crackdowns on Tibetans, Uighurs and religious groups such as the Falun Gong are widespread, resulting in thousands of political prisoners--some of whom have been executed. Half a million people are currently in labor camps. Women face forced abortion and sterilization as part of China's enforcement of its one-child policy.

"It's not too late for Secretary Clinton to do the right thing for the Chinese people. Amnesty International urges Secretary Clinton to repair the damage caused by her statement and publicly declare that human rights are central to U.S.-China relations before she leaves Beijing."

T. Kumar, Amnesty International USA advocacy director for Asia and the Pacific

“The US government cannot afford to let Beijing set the agenda”

Tenzin Dorjee, Students for a Free Tibet

'The sound of gunfire, off in the distance
I'm getting used to it now
Lived in a brownstone, lived in the ghetto
I've lived all over this town'

David Byrne, 'Talking Heads' - 'Life During Wartime'

Where oh where to START!

1.) TIBET

Let's start at the last quote. The US cannot let Beijing set the agenda on Tibet?

Think that through for one moment.

We'll wait...

Turn it around for a moment.

Tibet has been a part of The People's Republic of China since 1950.

The CIA attempted to promote a Tibetan insurrection in 1956.

'The Dalai Lama has said that he sees the millions of government-imported Han immigrants and preferential socioeconomic policies, as presenting an urgent threat to the Tibetan nation and culture'.

Of that, there can be no question.

That is what modernity will do to a Faith-Based enclave living in a remote region of a secular, emerging Global Power.

Ask the Sioux of South Dakota if they'd have preferred the Tibetan deal for gradual integration, rather than the 'Manifest Destiny' they got in its place.

China is a country of 1.5 Billion, mostly Han citizens. Like Americans streaming into the Black Hills and over the American West, that they are going to spread throughout the Country is a given, and, that spread is going to signal cultural change.

'The Dalai Lama has stated his willingness to negotiate with the PRC government for genuine autonomy, but according to the government in exile and Tibetan independence groups, most Tibetans still call for full Tibetan independence'

A man whose acolytes proclaim to be a 'Living God' is WILLING to negotiate with a sovereign Government for autonomy?

Ask the Confederate widows what happened in America when the South declared a determination to preserve 'their' culture and assert 'their' independence.

The Dalai Lama, of course, understands this and has modified this unrealistic stance "We are willing to be part of the People's Republic of China, to have it govern and guarantee to preserve our Tibetan culture, spirituality and our environment."

No such guarantees exist in life. Culture is fluid, changed and altered by every element, 'preservation' is futile. All that can be hoped for is a peaceful and enlightened approach to coexistence and assimilation. More than that is a fantasy. Tibetan Nationalism, as it exists currently, is an American construct, much like the Irish-Americans who brayed on about the UK and Northern Ireland, belligerent and unwilling to compromise while safe on the streets of New York or Boston, while Belfast mothers and children, orange OR green, took their lives in their hands on each trip to the store...then the parties sat down with Clinton and George Mitchell, and things got better. Today, of course, Arab expatriates, thriving in Brooklyn or Michigan, continue demanding a radical approach to Israel by Lebanese and Palestinian citizens who have nothing and live in fear of their overlords who fuel on such rhetoric AND the Israelis who those groups exist to destroy. Not enough food, commerce or progress.

More fantasy.

How refreshing to see an American Administration engaging the World and talking about REALITY, acknowledging the REALITY of American power in 2009, the interconnectedness of Chinese and American interests across a BROAD, rather than narrow, spectrum.

2.) Falun Gong

Unlike Tibet, which has existed in some form since the 7th Century, and therefore can at least claim precedent for its cultural and spiritual separateness, Falun Gong came into existence in 1992.

That was the year Secretary Clinton's husband won the Presidency...if you're reading this - you can remember that time pretty well.

Falun Gong, once again, is fueled by American critics of the Chinese, this time on the Right, who see it's theology as being a hopeful foot in the door against Chinese secularism. It is likely that both they AND the Chinese Government see parallels between the grass-roots nature of Falun Gong, the resultant persecution of its members and the experiences of Roman Christians.

It is just as likely that they read the lessons of that history differently, with the Christian Right hopeful for a blossoming of mystical belief overtaking the regime, as Augustine's conversion forever altered Rome and the future of the West.

Meanwhile, the PRC, immersed in unprecedented efforts to modernize its huge, formerly agrarian Nation on BEHALF of its people, may note that Christian Rome evaporated, fell and that Christianity led the West down a Thousand year 'Dark Ages'.

Benedict may pine for such times and the Southern Baptist Convention is on record as agreeing.

Not the Chinese.

3.) Xinjiang - Uyghur Province (East Turkistan)

As peace loving American leftists agitate the Chinese on behalf of gentle Tibet, and faith-based American rightists support moralizing Falun Gong, Islam and Russia both have a hand in the aspirations of dissident Islamics in Central Asia who clamor as their brothers do for autonomy and freedom to create a Islamic society in Ughyur of Western China.

For Russia, who continue to consolidate their grip on the other 'Stans' in the region, agitating for anti-Western policies in Kazahkstan, Kyrgyzytan, Uzbekistan and for a way to extend a solid buffer zone between the succesful economic model of the Chinese and the subjugated former provinces of the Soviet Union.

For Russia, its about influence and energy.

Unlike China, Russia has nothing going for it Economically or Demographically. There are ten times as many Chinese and their economy not only dwarfs Russia's, but is growing, organically, WITHOUT energy resources. Conversely, under Putin, Russia has moved away from Market economics and towards becoming a Petro-State - a strategy his people cheered when Oil was at $150 and tanks rolled through Georgia. But with oil having shaved two thirds of its value and Winter fast receding, money for Putin's expansionist fantasies has evaporated, along with Russian markets and currency. Putin is desperate to remain relevant, as evidenced by the spigot wars with Ukraine and Belarus and the sabre-rattling over Poland and Eastern European NATO membership.

For Islam, it is about maintaining and expanding the Islamic World on every border. As it is, from the far Eastern tip of Islamic Indonesia' Jayapura in the South Pacific Westward to the Atlantic Coast of Casablanca in Morocco, only Japan, India, Korea, Mongolia, Vietnam and Israel join China in being distinct from Islam. Like the American Christians, Islam views secularity as apostate, beyond even the sins of other 'Peoples of the Book' (Jews, Christians). To Muslim sensibilities, those who believe in a monotheism of the Middle East have at least SOME of the story right, but what to do with a people who not only refute belief but militantly refuse to allow an Islamic toehold in their secular republic?

Imagine that. Almost as if the Chinese leadership have not ONLY been studying economics, engineering, geology, space and history...but also watching the news.

In Gaza...

In Mumbai...

In the Philippines...

In London...

In Madrid...

In Manhattan...

In Washington, DC...

In rural Pennslyvania...

Think that list is too long to make the point?
The list is massively abridged, out of concern for space, not accommodation to sensibilities.

But the point is made and it is this, China says 'not here'.

4.) Taiwan

Relationships ebb and flow. Two people may be 'made' for one another at a particular point in their lives and hopelessly mismatched at another. The Same is true for companies, neighborhoods or even NEIGHBORS.

It is true for Countries.

Times change, interests alternately converge and diverge.

Taiwan understood the need for Democracy when mainland China was under totalitarianism.

Taiwan understood the need for Market economics and broad educational opportunity when China was under a morass of ideological and cultural control.

China has come around to the Taiwanese model, first on education, then on economics, and utilizes it's central control more in response to items 1-2-3 on this list and the urgency of its population issues than it does to impose Maoist style repression.

China in 2009 'gets it' in a manner unimaginable to anyone in the World, scarcely two decades ago.

Taiwan is an engine of growth, tolerance and accomplishment right off of China's shore.

Taiwan has more to gain from fuller engagement with 1.5B Chinese than it does from a meaningless flirtation with hard line American Right concerns that were more appropriate in Nixon's day than in 2009, with a China whose economy is poised to bestride the globe. Taiwan is BUILT upon commerce and commerce means China.

Pretending otherwise is, what?

You got it!

A fantasy.

And, while we're on the subject of self-serving, detached-from-reality scenarios...

5.) Human Rights

Does anyone in the World doubt that Hillary Clinton is an advocate for women all over the world?

Does anyone believe that women in Asia do not realize that she is?

This is the one place where the typically opposed fantasists on the American right and left come together, whether from cynicism or naivety.

As previously discussed, American History hardly stands up to a ringing endorsement for any particular virtue in this arena.

You know all those PHD's in the Chinese Government?

They can read.

They know about the Slaves, they know about the Indians, they know what it meant for the Irish, the Italian, the Jew, the Slav, the Hispanic and the Chinese when they first knocked on the door of America.

They sat on their hands when that idiot, Bush, and his blundering henchmen, lectured China on Economics and Investment as Chinese coffers stood brimming with Dollars and America's passion for 'structured finance' and the internal-combustion engine sent it tumbling down a hole that cannot yet be measured (since the tumble continues...) and has damaged the economy of every nation on Earth.

In America, Dick Cheney goes from Halliburton to the White House and the Government then spends more money with Halliburton than it did in the entire Second World War. Cheney now leaves the Government and unwinds a 'blind trust' worth hundreds of millions of dollars due to these expenditures under his watch.

In China, bureaucrats are found to have taken bribes at the expense of the common good and are executed.

Different? Sure.

Guru knows who he believes got it right.

They sat again, as Bush, leader of an American sect with perhaps 150 years of history, the aforementioned holders of slaves, slaughterers of indians and abandoners of New Orleans added cultural absurdity to the economic by lecturing a 5,000 year old China, essentially, on how to be more like Texas.

Both left and right are apparently still beholden to the notion that we Americans somehow are 'calling the tune' in this and other relationships. How grateful we can all be that the President and the Secretary are under NO such illusion.

READ that laundry list of complaints from Amnesty International, We've addressed them.

We have plenty on our plate, thank you. Reforming China from afar, with our own fortunes plummeting is CERTAINLY not 'change', right Joe Biden?

'That's more of the same'.

The World will get better the way it always has, incrementally, through education, commerce, peaceful coexistence. Or there will be War.

In China, India, Brazil...the accumulation of such incremental steps has resulted in an undeniable progress that none can question. Are they ideal constructs?

Nope.

Ideal and Human Society are not compatible.

But they are better than they've ever been and moving the fortunes of their populations upward and the interactions with other nations forward. Beijing, unlike Moscow and Teheran, does not desire conflict - that is the LAST thing they want. If conflict was their goal, Bush was the ticket and our current weakness and indebtedness would make us ripe for the picking.

That too would be fantasy-based.

As Hillary noted, China and America are the two most important players on the Global stage and, for the first time, both seem to realize it.

Further than that, the Chess board that is the World of conflicting interests finds an unprecedented opportunity for agreement in the wake of the economic meltdown.

We've learned how linked we are. We realize that ALL of us need the engine of progress, of trade, of environmental stewardship, of future exploration and that NONE of us wants nor needs more destitute peoples to care for or more armed conflict that creates such populations.

Barack and Hillary realize that America can build a coalition of allies like India, Japan, Australia, Canada, Israel. South Korea...places where honest business can occur, human rights are desired and the FUTURE is the guiding spirit, not the past.

China is already there. So is Brazil. The USA needs to emphatically strengthen its relationship with both.

A 'United Nations' implies something. That something has never been more attainable, but it requires CLARITY, honesty and humility.

In Latin America, Brazil is the dominant player and its market-friendly socialism has trumped Hugo Chavez and his Castro-esque pretentions. Venezuela is zero threat to the United States. Chavez anger with Bush was right on target, Bush is an oligarch with long attachment to the deposed oligarchs of Venezuela AND Cuba who tried to effect a coup in Caracas. Barack is no such thing and Chavez knows it. America, under Obama, will make it easy for Chavez and Raul Castro to navigate back towards the middle and ratchet down both the rhetoric and the condescension. Obstructionism, given the reality of the circumstances, is futile.

That is where things can get done.

If Latin America can be included in the alliance with those other freedom and peace-loving peoples, all can be considered as 'opting-in' to a working global dynamic.

Which leaves three players on the Globe not accounted for.

The first is Sub-Saharan Africa, and the allied countries have the ability to effect change through TRUE economic integration and reform that will finally result in an Africa that stands firmly in the modern world and cares for her own. Africans look to the future as well, they have little to hope for in the past.

There are two systemic obstructions to African progress. The first is an ecclesiastical 'cold war' that uses Africans as proxy for its conflicts, much as the Cold War combatants sacrificed Vietnamese lives for no purpose whatsoever. Islam converts and arms one side, Western Christians convert and arm others and gangster hordes maneuver between the cracks and gunfire to insure spoils for themselves while African people die needlessly, underfed, undermedicated, disconnected from any meaningful say in their own futures. Africa IS on the front lines of any confrontation between the World and Islam, but that cannot be, as Bush hoped, a 'conflict of civilizations' - a crusade, it is simply between the modern world (life) and antiquity (death). Africa can be fixed, but not under a cross or a crescent.

Not so, Russia and Islam. Neither has effectively integrated into the global economy or culture. Neither bases its goals and aspirations upon thinking of the Future and looking to the well-being of its citizens.

Concerned about 'Human Rights' and the plight of women? Don't ask about China, speak with a woman who has spent time in 'The Kingdom', or Afghanistan.

Think the Chinese are not transparent enough, go stand next to a Russian journalist with a dissident view.

Remember to duck when the sedan rolls by, Compton-style, or is it Chicago?

Russia is busily attempting, 19th/20th Century style, to 're-fight the last war' and, once again is lurching towards 'strong-man' control, as they did under Monarchy, Communism and Oligarchy. Having found the fluctuations of markets, diversification and regulation too difficult to implement, they have instead hoped for the Petro-State model and its promise of instant gratification and now, in its reversal, bandy about borders and 'sphere of influence'.

Russia wants to MATTER. The way they once did, but they do not. Under Putin, they've made it clear that they will work to change that, not through measured, incremental changes, but through force, coercion, extortion.

The usual recipe.

Islam, of course, owes its entire economic existence to that same Petro-model, and is beholden to 7th Century Theology. Like American Conservatives at the 'Cato Institute' or who admire WIlliam F. Buckley, Islam seeks to stand astride History and yell 'Stop'.

They only differ on the Century they'd have us return to. And who gets to hold the reins.

Russia and Islam do NOT 'opt-in', they have no rationale that gets them there.

An alliance between America, China and the others effectively blunts Russia AND Islam. A united commitment to dramatic new Energy policies will only further isolate and destabilize these corrupt and dangerous players. And that will result in conflict. An alliance assures that conflict will resolve itself in favor of those places looking towards the FUTURE, not hopelessly dependent upon yesterday's theology, yesterday's energy, yesterday's technology or yesterday's map

As long as America and China are not in alliance, those players can work in the cracks and the Globe can be held hostage.

This President and this Secretary of State are a formidable voice for change that can WORK.

It is hardly surprising that they will have to attempt its implementation over squabbling children on either side of the American aisle.

But it remains eternally disappointing.