The MLB MVP Predictor
By Kelly Scaletta
I've decided to make the weekends here an MLB weekend. I've done so for a couple of reasons. First, my weekends, especially during the summer, afford me some extra time. Second, and more importantly, because I love baseball and even more, breaking down numbers in baseball. Fridays will post the MVP Predictor, Saturdays, my MLB Backell Ratings (which I introduced last week) and Sundays will be for the Cy Young Predictor.
Now, one of the great discussions in sports is the MVP award, and in baseball we get to have twice the fun, because there are twice the awards. So how can we beat that? So I've decided that henceforth, every week I will post the MVP predictor. So what is the MVP predictor you ask? It is an estimate of who is most likely (although not necessarily most deserving) of winning the MVP award. I have taken the three triple crown categories and normalized them to where a score of 120 is what you might call a "very good" performance. I have assigned one point per RBI, 3 points per HR, and BA X 275. Thus, 120 RBI, 40 HR and a BA of .335 would all be about the same. I have also added a score of .8 for runs and .5 for BB. All stats are pace adjusted by the number of games the team, not the player has played. I have also added in the projected wins *1.2 based on the present number of wins the team has, so that team success would have roughly equal weight with the triple crown categories. I then totaled the entire number and multiplied by 1.5 so that there would be a good "benchmark" number for recognizing MVP. The best way to look at it is a score over 1000 means you're having an MVP type year. Below are the top 10 in both the NL and AL along with their scores.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
PLAYER TEAM League MVP Score
Jason Bay BOS AL 1104
Evan Longoria TAM AL 1092
Carlos Pena TAM AL 1046
Aaron Hill TOR AL 1001
Ian Kinsler TEX AL 997
Kevin Youkilis BOS AL 946
Torii Hunter LAA AL 941
Miguel Cabrera DET AL 935
Brandon Inge DET AL 914
Curtis Granderson DET AL 913
NATIONAL LEGAUE
Albert Pujols STL NL 1221
Raul Ibanez PHI NL 1003
Chase Utley PHI NL 1000
Manny Ramirez LAD NL 960
Alfonso Soriano CHC NL 952
Jorge Cantu FLA NL 933
Adrian Gonzalez SDG NL 908
Adam Dunn WAS NL 893
Carlos Beltran NYM NL 886
Ryan Howard PHI NL 879
Well at first look it seems to be working OK, at least in the NL, but in the AL you look at it and say how in the heck is Bay in front of Longoria. Right now he's benefiting from a team with a much better win percentage. My guess is that's probably going to even out a tad more over time. It probably would be the case though that if Longoria had a better season, but on a team that was sitting on 70-75 wins he wouldn't get a lot of MVP consideration, especially if Bay is putting up MVP type numbers for a 100 win Boston team. Remember this isn't predicting who SHOULD win it's predicting who WILL win. In the NL there's no conflict because Albert's team is the second best record in the NL, and he's leading in 2 of the 3 triple crown categories.
My guess is that as the season goes on the anomalies will even out and the MVP will have a score around 1000. We'll wait and see how the team progresses, and if I need to I might make adjustments to it. I'm open to suggestions.
Kelly writes eloquently and intelligently about sports, politics and his faith here.
I've decided to make the weekends here an MLB weekend. I've done so for a couple of reasons. First, my weekends, especially during the summer, afford me some extra time. Second, and more importantly, because I love baseball and even more, breaking down numbers in baseball. Fridays will post the MVP Predictor, Saturdays, my MLB Backell Ratings (which I introduced last week) and Sundays will be for the Cy Young Predictor.
Now, one of the great discussions in sports is the MVP award, and in baseball we get to have twice the fun, because there are twice the awards. So how can we beat that? So I've decided that henceforth, every week I will post the MVP predictor. So what is the MVP predictor you ask? It is an estimate of who is most likely (although not necessarily most deserving) of winning the MVP award. I have taken the three triple crown categories and normalized them to where a score of 120 is what you might call a "very good" performance. I have assigned one point per RBI, 3 points per HR, and BA X 275. Thus, 120 RBI, 40 HR and a BA of .335 would all be about the same. I have also added a score of .8 for runs and .5 for BB. All stats are pace adjusted by the number of games the team, not the player has played. I have also added in the projected wins *1.2 based on the present number of wins the team has, so that team success would have roughly equal weight with the triple crown categories. I then totaled the entire number and multiplied by 1.5 so that there would be a good "benchmark" number for recognizing MVP. The best way to look at it is a score over 1000 means you're having an MVP type year. Below are the top 10 in both the NL and AL along with their scores.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
PLAYER TEAM League MVP Score
Jason Bay BOS AL 1104
Evan Longoria TAM AL 1092
Carlos Pena TAM AL 1046
Aaron Hill TOR AL 1001
Ian Kinsler TEX AL 997
Kevin Youkilis BOS AL 946
Torii Hunter LAA AL 941
Miguel Cabrera DET AL 935
Brandon Inge DET AL 914
Curtis Granderson DET AL 913
NATIONAL LEGAUE
Albert Pujols STL NL 1221
Raul Ibanez PHI NL 1003
Chase Utley PHI NL 1000
Manny Ramirez LAD NL 960
Alfonso Soriano CHC NL 952
Jorge Cantu FLA NL 933
Adrian Gonzalez SDG NL 908
Adam Dunn WAS NL 893
Carlos Beltran NYM NL 886
Ryan Howard PHI NL 879
Well at first look it seems to be working OK, at least in the NL, but in the AL you look at it and say how in the heck is Bay in front of Longoria. Right now he's benefiting from a team with a much better win percentage. My guess is that's probably going to even out a tad more over time. It probably would be the case though that if Longoria had a better season, but on a team that was sitting on 70-75 wins he wouldn't get a lot of MVP consideration, especially if Bay is putting up MVP type numbers for a 100 win Boston team. Remember this isn't predicting who SHOULD win it's predicting who WILL win. In the NL there's no conflict because Albert's team is the second best record in the NL, and he's leading in 2 of the 3 triple crown categories.
My guess is that as the season goes on the anomalies will even out and the MVP will have a score around 1000. We'll wait and see how the team progresses, and if I need to I might make adjustments to it. I'm open to suggestions.
Kelly writes eloquently and intelligently about sports, politics and his faith here.