Blue Grass:2 Fillies, 3 Colts
'Emancipate yourself from mental slavery, none but ourselves can free our minds'
Bob Marley - Emancipation Song
All of us are different.
We like different things, root for different teams, enjoy different season and different rituals.
Many of us love Spring in Sports...Spring Training and the start of the Baseball Season, March Madness, NFL Draft, the Masters, NHL and NBA playoffs...
Guru loves that stuff, also.
But one week is my favorite week in the Spring and here we are.
In New York, Beautiful Belmont Park opens for the Spring Thoroughbred Meet (opened Weds.), meaning the world's best Horses will be coming to NYC on the sacred ground that is Belmont (if you go to Belmont, look for Guru on the 3rd floor, in the Grandstand by the 1/16th Pole). It is in that 3rd Floor Grandstand that Guru decided to work for himself and began a whole new life and it is there that I have spent countless hours enjoying the beautiful green grass and watching and observing the world's greatest athletes, the Thoroughbred Race Horse.
As luck would have it, the first weekend in May is also the time for the Churchill Downs meeting in Kentucky Blue Grass country. The Kentucky Oaks (on Friday, for the best 3 year old fillies) and, on the first Saturday in May, the grandest race in American Racing...
The Kentucky Derby, (for three year old Colts, and fillies that wish to enter).
Now, sadly, I realize that very, very few of you follow the 'Sport of Kings' or understand the art of handicapping, the details of wagering or have an appreciation for the animals (every year, you can find folks denigrating the designation of Racing as a 'Sport' and Horses as 'Athletes', but then again, if you check the folks saying things like that...well, you know what I mean). So, for you, this may not be a sacred ritual and you may have little of no interest in the weekend races.
But...you might, or you might have to go to a party where people will be watching and wish to have a CLUE about the proceedings.
Whatever, Guru loves it and Guru writes about the things he loves.
Simple equation that always works for me.
Without further ado;
Friday May 2, 2008 - The 134th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks
for 3 year old fillies 1 1/8 Mile on the Dirt
This year features a field of Eleven Fillies (or Twelve if favored 'Eight Belles' decides to run here rather than in the Derby tomorrow.
Pure Clan, Proud Spell and Country Star figure to be the fillies being bet the most and all are terrific young fillies, but Guru is a big believer in Pedigree when it comes to the 'Classic' races as year in and year out, the Horses who have been BRED to run longer distances seem to have the most success in these types of races.
Accordingly, I am going with two fillies who have impeccable breeding and proven ability, but who are less highly regarded and may fetch higher odds.
The first one has a super cool name - 'Awesome Chic' a 3 year old daughter of former Horse of the Year, Awesome Again out of a mare, Trading, whose sire was ALSO Horse of the Year, the brilliant AP Indy. Awesome Chic is bred to run all day long and has shown flashes of brilliance in her young career, she gets one vote.
The second filly is another regally bred Lass, 'Little Belle', whose Sire was that same AP Indy and whose dam Dubai Belle, was sired by one of the greatest sires in the breed, the incopmarable, Storm Cat. Little Belle is coming off three straight victories, the last one being a Grade 1 win at Keeneland in the Ashland Stakes (at a delicious 16-1), she is training in the mornings in brilliant form and should be a strong competitor.
Saturday May 3, 2008 - the 134th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby for three year old Colts and Fillies (Fillies may enter either race, the Oaks is for females only) - 1 1/4 Miles on the Dirt
The great race features a full field of TWENTY horses running from two starting gates placed side by side. The main gate has 14 slots, meaning there is a gap between Post Position 14 and 15 that gives the horses in those positions a bit more room at the crowded start. The Three year olds in the Derby are all well bred and have proven to have brilliant speed and/or stamina, but these are not yet fully mature Horses (think Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy) who have never been asked to run this far (1 1/4 miles) and most will rarely be asked to do so again. They also will never again race before 125,000 screaming, drunken fans in a field so large that the starting gates span the whole width of the track.
What this means is that Handicapping a race with this many variables in a field this large is even MORE of a crapshoot that any other race of the year, when the horses have more races under their belts and have PROVEN form, at PROVEN distances in fields where crowding and racing 'luck' will not play as large a role.
At this stage in their careers, only TWO of these colts have proven to be special talents and both warrant consideration in this race and one other has shown flashes of brilliance and has impeccable breeding so will be added to the mix, the Three Colts are;
Big Brown has run the two fastest races of the year by a three year old and is a deserving favorite. In his last race, he was placed in the outside gate at Gulfstream Park in post position 12, a position that no horse has been able to overcome previously and won brilliantly in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
But...once again, he is on the FAR outside, this time in POST 20, where only one previous Kentucky Derby winner has started from (1929 winner Clyde Van dusen), there is little doubt that Big Brown is the fastest of these colts but he will have to work extremely hard to save enough ground into the first turn from this disadvantageous post, as the OTHER 'speed' horses (speed horses like to run on or near the lead in races, 'closers' like to come from far behind and 'stalkers' like to track leaders in mid-pack) are all posted to his immediate inside. IF Big Brown wins, he will prove his brilliance and be a strong contender for the first Triple Crown (winner of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness in Maryland and Belmont Stakes in NYC) winner since the majestic 1978 Winner, Affirmed
Colonel John is the second choice, starting mid-gate in Post 10. He was a brilliant winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in his last race and has trained brilliantly for this race, his first on a Dirt surface. Santa Anita and all the California tracks (as well as Keeneland in Kentucky) now race on 'Polytrack' a synthetic surface designed to be easier on the Horses legs. Since this surface is relatively new, there are no ways to judge how animals who have run exclusively on Polytrack will adjust to racing on natural dirt. IF Colonel John likes it, and he has trained well over it, then he should be right in the thick of things at the wire.
One other horse is Guru's long shot selection, a colt named Adriano, who was sired by AP Indy out of a mare, Gold Canyon who was sired by Mr. Prospector. Adriano won in impressive fashion from off the pace (the derby, with all those outside speedsters and Big Brown figures to be run fast early, possibly setting it up for a closer with 1 1/4 Mile pedigree. THAT horse is Adriano, who you may be able to find at 30-1, Guru bet him in the early pools at 38-1 and, if he wins, that S-C-R-E-A-M you will hear is New Hampshire Girl, since the notoriously tight Guru will HAVE to relinquish some of the winnings and put them towards Miss Thang's spring wardrobe! (since Guru was raised by a woman who always wanted a girl, he has been inundated with fashion since the womb and has an unerringing sense of what works, so much so that old girlfriends and female neighbors insist on Guru's advice when shopping...).
I do hope you are able to view both races, at least the Derby and that you are able to appreciate these magnificent animals. If you ever come to NYC in the summer, be sure and let Guru know and I will drag you out to Belmont Park for one of the nicest days you will ever have!
Bob Marley - Emancipation Song
All of us are different.
We like different things, root for different teams, enjoy different season and different rituals.
Many of us love Spring in Sports...Spring Training and the start of the Baseball Season, March Madness, NFL Draft, the Masters, NHL and NBA playoffs...
Guru loves that stuff, also.
But one week is my favorite week in the Spring and here we are.
In New York, Beautiful Belmont Park opens for the Spring Thoroughbred Meet (opened Weds.), meaning the world's best Horses will be coming to NYC on the sacred ground that is Belmont (if you go to Belmont, look for Guru on the 3rd floor, in the Grandstand by the 1/16th Pole). It is in that 3rd Floor Grandstand that Guru decided to work for himself and began a whole new life and it is there that I have spent countless hours enjoying the beautiful green grass and watching and observing the world's greatest athletes, the Thoroughbred Race Horse.
As luck would have it, the first weekend in May is also the time for the Churchill Downs meeting in Kentucky Blue Grass country. The Kentucky Oaks (on Friday, for the best 3 year old fillies) and, on the first Saturday in May, the grandest race in American Racing...
The Kentucky Derby, (for three year old Colts, and fillies that wish to enter).
Now, sadly, I realize that very, very few of you follow the 'Sport of Kings' or understand the art of handicapping, the details of wagering or have an appreciation for the animals (every year, you can find folks denigrating the designation of Racing as a 'Sport' and Horses as 'Athletes', but then again, if you check the folks saying things like that...well, you know what I mean). So, for you, this may not be a sacred ritual and you may have little of no interest in the weekend races.
But...you might, or you might have to go to a party where people will be watching and wish to have a CLUE about the proceedings.
Whatever, Guru loves it and Guru writes about the things he loves.
Simple equation that always works for me.
Without further ado;
Friday May 2, 2008 - The 134th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks
for 3 year old fillies 1 1/8 Mile on the Dirt
This year features a field of Eleven Fillies (or Twelve if favored 'Eight Belles' decides to run here rather than in the Derby tomorrow.
Pure Clan, Proud Spell and Country Star figure to be the fillies being bet the most and all are terrific young fillies, but Guru is a big believer in Pedigree when it comes to the 'Classic' races as year in and year out, the Horses who have been BRED to run longer distances seem to have the most success in these types of races.
Accordingly, I am going with two fillies who have impeccable breeding and proven ability, but who are less highly regarded and may fetch higher odds.
The first one has a super cool name - 'Awesome Chic' a 3 year old daughter of former Horse of the Year, Awesome Again out of a mare, Trading, whose sire was ALSO Horse of the Year, the brilliant AP Indy. Awesome Chic is bred to run all day long and has shown flashes of brilliance in her young career, she gets one vote.
The second filly is another regally bred Lass, 'Little Belle', whose Sire was that same AP Indy and whose dam Dubai Belle, was sired by one of the greatest sires in the breed, the incopmarable, Storm Cat. Little Belle is coming off three straight victories, the last one being a Grade 1 win at Keeneland in the Ashland Stakes (at a delicious 16-1), she is training in the mornings in brilliant form and should be a strong competitor.
Saturday May 3, 2008 - the 134th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby for three year old Colts and Fillies (Fillies may enter either race, the Oaks is for females only) - 1 1/4 Miles on the Dirt
The great race features a full field of TWENTY horses running from two starting gates placed side by side. The main gate has 14 slots, meaning there is a gap between Post Position 14 and 15 that gives the horses in those positions a bit more room at the crowded start. The Three year olds in the Derby are all well bred and have proven to have brilliant speed and/or stamina, but these are not yet fully mature Horses (think Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy) who have never been asked to run this far (1 1/4 miles) and most will rarely be asked to do so again. They also will never again race before 125,000 screaming, drunken fans in a field so large that the starting gates span the whole width of the track.
What this means is that Handicapping a race with this many variables in a field this large is even MORE of a crapshoot that any other race of the year, when the horses have more races under their belts and have PROVEN form, at PROVEN distances in fields where crowding and racing 'luck' will not play as large a role.
At this stage in their careers, only TWO of these colts have proven to be special talents and both warrant consideration in this race and one other has shown flashes of brilliance and has impeccable breeding so will be added to the mix, the Three Colts are;
Big Brown has run the two fastest races of the year by a three year old and is a deserving favorite. In his last race, he was placed in the outside gate at Gulfstream Park in post position 12, a position that no horse has been able to overcome previously and won brilliantly in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
But...once again, he is on the FAR outside, this time in POST 20, where only one previous Kentucky Derby winner has started from (1929 winner Clyde Van dusen), there is little doubt that Big Brown is the fastest of these colts but he will have to work extremely hard to save enough ground into the first turn from this disadvantageous post, as the OTHER 'speed' horses (speed horses like to run on or near the lead in races, 'closers' like to come from far behind and 'stalkers' like to track leaders in mid-pack) are all posted to his immediate inside. IF Big Brown wins, he will prove his brilliance and be a strong contender for the first Triple Crown (winner of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness in Maryland and Belmont Stakes in NYC) winner since the majestic 1978 Winner, Affirmed
Colonel John is the second choice, starting mid-gate in Post 10. He was a brilliant winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in his last race and has trained brilliantly for this race, his first on a Dirt surface. Santa Anita and all the California tracks (as well as Keeneland in Kentucky) now race on 'Polytrack' a synthetic surface designed to be easier on the Horses legs. Since this surface is relatively new, there are no ways to judge how animals who have run exclusively on Polytrack will adjust to racing on natural dirt. IF Colonel John likes it, and he has trained well over it, then he should be right in the thick of things at the wire.
One other horse is Guru's long shot selection, a colt named Adriano, who was sired by AP Indy out of a mare, Gold Canyon who was sired by Mr. Prospector. Adriano won in impressive fashion from off the pace (the derby, with all those outside speedsters and Big Brown figures to be run fast early, possibly setting it up for a closer with 1 1/4 Mile pedigree. THAT horse is Adriano, who you may be able to find at 30-1, Guru bet him in the early pools at 38-1 and, if he wins, that S-C-R-E-A-M you will hear is New Hampshire Girl, since the notoriously tight Guru will HAVE to relinquish some of the winnings and put them towards Miss Thang's spring wardrobe! (since Guru was raised by a woman who always wanted a girl, he has been inundated with fashion since the womb and has an unerringing sense of what works, so much so that old girlfriends and female neighbors insist on Guru's advice when shopping...).
I do hope you are able to view both races, at least the Derby and that you are able to appreciate these magnificent animals. If you ever come to NYC in the summer, be sure and let Guru know and I will drag you out to Belmont Park for one of the nicest days you will ever have!